On May 17, 2025, a car bomb exploded outside the American Reproductive Centers in Palm Springs, California, killing the suspect and injuring four others. The FBI identified the bomber as 25-year-old Guy Edward Bartkus of Twentynine Palms, California. Bartkus held radical “anti-natalist” and “pro-mortalist” beliefs, arguing that birth without consent is unethical, and deliberately targeted a fertility clinic to amplify his ideology through violence. He attempted to livestream the bombing and left behind a manifesto detailing his views and intent.

This tragic incident is now being investigated as an act of domestic terrorism. Through the lens of the PAAD Behavioral Prevention Model—Prevention, Assessment, Awareness, and Disruption—this article explores how earlier recognition of behavioral red flags may have helped to prevent this attack.

Prevention – Recognizing Emerging Threats

Preventing targeted violence begins with identifying early indicators of concern. In the case of Bartkus, several red flags stood out:

• Extreme Ideological Beliefs: His self-description as a “pro-mortalist” and repeated public statements opposing human reproduction pointed toward a rigid, radical worldview.
• Pre-Attack Manifesto: Bartkus published a detailed manifesto online, outlining his justifications and intent—an unmistakable sign of premeditation.
• Livestream Attempt: The attempt to broadcast the event shows a desire to gain attention, spread ideology, and inspire others—an established pattern in lone actor terrorism.

Had these signs been escalated through proper reporting and monitoring, behavioral intervention, or a disruption effort, a different outcome may have been possible.

Assessment – Understanding Threat Potential

Behavioral threat assessment isn’t about predicting who might commit violence—it’s about evaluating behavior and context:

• Digital Footprint: Bartkus expressed his views and intent online. A digital threat assessment—especially one triggered by key phrases or violent ideation—could have flagged his account for review.
• Isolation and Fixation: Individuals on a path to violence often show patterns of withdrawal from others and an obsessive focus on a grievance or ideology.
• Planning Behaviors: Purchasing bomb-making materials, writing manifestos, and choosing a target are significant steps in the attack cycle.

These factors are consistent with a subject transitioning from belief to action and should trigger a trained team to assess the threat directly.

Awareness – Building Community Vigilance

The third pillar of PAAD is building community-level awareness of red flags and how to respond:

• Educating the Public: Civilians, coworkers, and family members are often the first to notice behavioral changes or radicalization. Critical warning signs may be dismissed without training on what to look for.
• Institutional Preparedness: Facilities involved in controversial or emotional topics, such as reproductive health, should receive training in behavioral risk indicators and have clear channels to report threats.
• Encouraging “See Something, Say Something” Culture: Most lone actors show warning signs. Even when unsure, encouraging communities to speak up can lead to early interventions.

Disruption – Taking Preemptive Action

The final step in PAAD is direct intervention to interrupt the path to violence:

• Behavioral Intervention Teams: Institutions and law enforcement working together to connect at-risk individuals to mental health and social resources.
• Monitoring & Response: Once a concern is flagged, subject behavior must be closely monitored with a clear strategy for escalation if risk increases.
• Legal Tools: In some jurisdictions, red flag laws or pre-crime disruption tools can help authorities intervene before violence occurs, while protecting civil liberties.

The Palm Springs bombing wasn’t the spontaneous act of a troubled individual—it was the final step in a clear pattern of ideological hardening, isolation, and violent intent. While hindsight is 20/20, applying the PAAD Behavioral Prevention Approach may help prevent future tragedies by identifying and disrupting potential attackers before they act.

No one solution fits all, but by fostering behavioral awareness, establishing multidisciplinary response teams, and ensuring public readiness, communities can be better prepared to stop violence before it occurs.

Sources:

• Fox News – FBI identifies IVF clinic bombing suspect
• New York Post – IVF clinic bomber identified as Guy Edward Bartkus
• Reuters – FBI identifies suspect in Palm Springs fertility clinic bombing
• Los Angeles Times – Suicide bomber targeted fertility clinic

Understanding and preventing targeted violence requires more than reaction—it demands proactive recognition of behavioral red flags and early intervention strategies. The recent IVF clinic bombing highlights the urgent need for a structured behavioral approach like PAAD to help protect lives and disrupt violence before it occurs. Our industry must continue to lead with vigilance, intelligence, and commitment to safety.